Typhoon Tembin 2 - Formosahut forum

I figure Tembin deserves a new thread as it appears it has started a second life. Tembin is now predicted to do a loop off the SW coast of Taiwan. This is worst case scenario and, being such a small storm, a loop or stagnation over Taiwan is the only way it could do great damage.

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Was just about to start a Tembin 2 thread when i saw you'd already done it.
I was slightly skeptical that it was going to come back but it does appear to have turned.
One of the key things will be the 'poleward and equatorial outflows'. If it starts feeding rain into southern Taiwan before it arrives then it has the potential to cause significant rain damage. Hasn't really been able to properly regain its structure at this stage and in it's present form doesn't look too dangerous, but it is over clear ocean with optimal sea surface temp so it could ramp up again.

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The worst case scenario for us would be if it slides up the east coast. That way it would still be over water enabling it to maintain its strength while feeding rain into us even as it approaches and passes.

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Even after Tembin passes, there's another low on the horizon that could well develop into something. Will take about a week to get here.

Spent the last two days repairing the chicken fences - hope they're gonna last longer than a week.

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This is the radar. If that's all it's got then we've got nothing to worry about. But sure the media will still have a field day anyway.

Ok, what a difference a few hours makes. That suddenly looks pretty menacing.
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As expected, Tembin 2 was a pale imitation of Tembin 1. Didn't look like anything on approach until it was just a few hours out when the radar suddenly thickened up and the storm regained its structure, but the leading north west portion that could have impacted us, remained degraded and in the end it passed without incident.

Still, we had plenty of bang for our buck the first time around, so no complaints.

Relative to most typhoons that pass through our neighborhood, Tembin put on a good show, not great, but I'd have to say better than average. If Tembin were in a diving competition, I'd probably give it a 7. It would have only gotten a 6, but it's circuitous, surprising path gave it a refreshing uniqueness.

I think you're being a bit stingy giving just a 6 without the loop - i'd give it a 7 even for the first landfall.

Here's some footage from the first passing:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6psoZ2Lweo

Coming at night complicates things a bit - apart from being more difficult to get around, you can't really see the full effects of what's happening.

Off the topic - pretty decent earthquake tonight just off the coast from us. Reminded me of what they feel like in Australia - a kind of distant rumbling that sounds like thunder and then you could literally feel the shockwave approach and then it hit with one big shudder. Only 4.6 but the epicentre was just a couple of k out to sea from here.

I finally got around to watching the video. Well done! The whistling of Tembin in your windows is fantastic, and the reference to waiting, the rags under the windows - all classic. Cheers.

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