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Less Typhoons for Taiwan (Weather)

by dulan drift, Sunday, November 15, 2020, 06:47 (12 days ago)

This is interesting coz it sorts out the facts from the fiction of global warming. You often hear that climate change will result in more typhoons, which is a nice headline, but not actually true according to this analysis by Academia Sinica researcher, Hsu Huang-hsiung (許晃雄). On the contrary, Taiwan is likely to experience severe water shortages due to less typhoons, with a reduction of nearly half by the end of the century. The report suggests:

"The northwestern Pacific Ocean is expected to see the greatest decrease in typhoon activity of all the planet’s oceans".

"Typhoons that do occur at latitudes above 20 degrees north latitude would become stronger, and those south of that latitude would become weaker."

In addition, "weakening of atmospheric circulation during winter would contribute to a reduction in rainfall in winter and spring."

The typhoons that do hit Taiwan will have "4 to 8 percent stronger winds, as well as 30 to 40 percent more rain than current typhoons, (however) a decrease in the number of typhoons would mean an overall decrease in annual rainfall."

I'd hate to see a typhoon Nari or Morakot with "30 to 40 percent more rain"!

In general it sounds like an increase in the 'erratic' model. When typhoons come they are more destructive - but much longer times between drinks. So that's the worst of both worlds.


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